Sufian Sheikh
Aylesbury Grammar School, UK
In reference to Dr Umaima Imran’s article published in the Oniket Bulletin, Pakistan and Bangladesh are both met with the enticing opportunity of engaging in trade, through a cooperative bilateral relationship, despite their history of conflict and genocide. However, this article also raised one key question. Why is now the time for Bangladesh and Pakistan to create a bilateral relationship, beneficial for both states?
To answer this question, this article will delve deeper into the relationship between Bangladesh and their former marquee trade partner, India, a nation which Bangladesh can be characterised as bandwagoning with. The former Awami League Regime from 2009-2024 solely depended on their bilateral relationship with India, primarily the connection between Delhi and Dhaka. However, after the uprising of July 2024, and the exile of Sheikh Hasina alongside the downfall of the Awami League Regime, the connection between Bangladesh and India politically weakened significantly, resulting in the transition to Bangladesh hedging with India instead of bandwagoning. Thus, openings have emerged in Bangladesh’s trade partners with the lack of reliability within their foreign relations with India, hence why this opportunity with Pakistan has arisen.
Contextual Background: How were Bangladesh and India bilaterally related?
During Sheikh Hasina’s rule, the relationship between Bangladesh and India was commonly characterised as bandwagoning, as both countries had strong ties for the weaker state (Bangladesh) to share the benefits of close political and economic relations with the stronger neighbour (India). However, this bandwagon can be categorised as a regime-dependent bandwagon, in how the people of Bangladesh didn’t necessarily cooperate with this relationship; rather the Awami League party relied on their international relationship with India.
In the fiscal year of 2023-2024, the total bilateral trade between both nations amounted to $14.01 billion USD, making India Bangladesh’s second largest trading partner. Furthermore, 10 MoUs were signed in June 2024 between Narendra Modi and Sheikh Hasina, 7 new ones and 3 renewed. This emphasises how strong the bilateral relationship between both nations was, both politically and economically.
Both countries had a bilateral relationship of this strength, with Bangladesh acting as the bandwagon from 2009-2024, primarily for the purpose of improved security in India and geopolitical strategy, and support for the Awami League Regime. Within this timespan, the Awami League won 3 elections, widely categorised as controversial due to the strong diplomatic backing of Narendra Modi.
Sheikh Hasina depended on this backing to maintain her control over the Bangladesh populace, which is proven when in 2017, the JMB (Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh) plotted to assassinate Sheikh Hasina, but the Bangladesh Police and Indian National Investigation Agency foiled the plan. In return, she would tighten the border, so fewer conflicts would occur in these regions, and wipe out the insurgent groups in Assam and Tripura. This is because these groups often used Bangladeshi territory as sanctuary. Once the Awami League was no longer in power, the sudden weakening of the bilateral relationship between India and Bangladesh was only bound to occur.
From 2009-2024, however (often considered the ‘Golden Era’ of Bangladesh and India’s bilateral relationship), many flaws were profound within this bilateral relationship, primarily through a violation of human rights within areas near the border – such as when the Indian BSF killed 28 Bangladeshi nationals, with one being tortured to death, in 2023. Border control has always been the most prevalent issue within this relationship, with 1236 people dying in the border regions from 2000-2020. These issues became widespread when the Awami League was taken out of power, weakening this former bilateral relationship even further.
The effect of the 2024 July Uprising: How did it affect the bilateral relationship between India and Bangladesh?
In July 2024, over 1000 students were killed by the order of Sheikh Hasina, due to the rising protests related to the reinstatement of the Quota Policy. Her violation of human rights and inhumane actions, which induced the uprising and revolution against the Awami League Regime, naturally led to the general populace of Bangladesh being anti-Awami League. The following events saw India allow Hasina to receive sanctuary in their territory, where she has stayed for 2 years now. This only angered the public even more and resulted in them growing more opposed to India.
As mentioned prior, the Awami League was most closely connected with India as an international partner politico-economically and depended on them as an ally to maintain their power and Hasina’s control. Naturally, as this control is now gone, India has far less significance to Bangladesh politico-economically, hence why the bilateral relationship has now become one where Bangladesh is hedging with India.
Current Situation: How are Bangladesh and India currently related in political and economic terms, and can Pakistan fill in the gaps left by India?
Bangladesh doesn’t fully oppose India, hence why, as stated before, they hedge with India rather than treat it as purely a foreign rival. The value of $14.01 billion USD in bilateral trade mentioned above has drastically fallen to $7.42 billion in the fiscal year of 2025-2026, which further illustrates the idea that this relationship has significantly weakened, and continues to weaken.
However, there is enough evidence to support the idea that India’s political stability, overall security, and economy significantly improved during the ‘Golden Era’, while only the Awami League benefitted from their relationship with India, and not the general populace of Bangladesh – enough evidence, in fact, to conclude that returning to the ‘Golden Era’ is virtually impossible without the Awami League back in power.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Bangladesh is now vacant of a nation to benefit from for politico-economic stability, via a bilateral relationship, hence why Pakistan has the chance to become the new primary ally in the subcontinent, for their own success, as well as Bangladesh’s. Logistically, with the improvements in connectivity between Bangladesh and Pakistan, both nations have the opportunity to overtake the ‘Golden Era’ of 2009-2024 as Bangladesh’s primary bilateral relationship in the subcontinent.
Key terms:
Bandwagoning – A strategy where a weaker state aligns with a stronger, more powerful state – rather than opposing it – usually to share in the benefits of that alignment (economic support, security backing, diplomatic protection) or to avoid the costs of confronting a power it can’t realistically challenge
Hedging – A strategy where a state avoids committing fully to either alignment or opposition with a dominant power, and instead keeps multiple options open simultaneously – maintaining working ties with the dominant power while also building relationships with its rivals or alternatives
BSF – Border Security Force
Sources:
The Oniket Bulletin – Old Wounds, New Opportunities: Pakistan and Bangladesh at an Economic Crossroads (Article)
JSTOR – The Trajectory of India-Bangladesh Ties in Post-Hasina Times (Journal Article)
International Crisis Group – After the “Golden Era”: Getting Bangladesh-India Ties Back on Track (Research Report)
World Trade Organization – Bangladesh’s trade profile in 2018
Observer Research Foundation – ‘A positive move on India-Bangladesh Extradition Treaty’ (Research Report)
